Academic CentreThe study was carried out with the aim of assessing the accuracy of the forecasts of macroeconomic and budget indicators of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Latvia in comparison with other institutions - the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Bank of Latvia.
The study concluded that in 2019-2022, the Ministry of Finance predicted 41% of the indicators more accurately than the International Monetary Fund, 33% of the indicators the Ministry of Finance predicted more accurately than the Bank of Latvia, 27% of the indicators the Ministry of Finance predicted more accurately than the European Commission and 24% of the indicators - more accurately than Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. There is a potential for the Ministry of Finance to further reduce the forecast error.
Project leader: Dr. Oļegs Krasnopjorovs, Deputy Director of the UL think tank LV PEAK
OUTPUTS OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT
Final report in Latvian:
Noslēguma ziņojums (PDF)
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Cilvēkkapitāla attīstības politikas efektivitātes un progresa novērtēšana Latvijā
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Implementation of the measures in the field of investment and productivity
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Creation of a quantitative assessment model of the impact of European Union funds on the Latvian economy
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Ex-post evaluation of the quality of macroeconomic and budget forecasts