2022

Based on the logically constructive method (etc.), based on the scientific and specialized literature, the experience of other countries, as well as a survey of Latvian experts, a (descriptive) scenario of the goal of climate neutrality of the energy sector for 2050 has been developed, identifying the main challenges to its achievement. An assessment of the extent to which the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's aggression in Ukraine affect the overall progress towards achieving the goals of climate neutrality is also provided.

The basic assumptions and scenarios of macroeconomic development developed in the 2021 research (Assessment of Latvia's macroeconomic development scenarios and forecasts to assess the impact of the European Commission's revised energy efficiency and renewed energy resources directives) have been clarified, taking into account the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's aggression in Ukraine on economic development and energy sector. The main risks and challenges of economic development for the implementation of the base (target) scenario have been assessed.

Within the framework of the research, 3 scenarios of Latvian economic development have been modeled - base, optimistic or faster growth, as well as pessimistic growth scenario. The impact of each development scenario on the development trends and structural changes of the sectors was evaluated. The scenarios will be the basis (input conditions) to determine the economic impact of achieving the identified economic and climate goals under various hypotheses using the energy and climate TIMES (Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) and CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) models.

As part of the research, the expert survey method was used to find out the opinion of Latvia's leading experts on the possible achievement of the climate neutrality target scenario, to outline the main trends and challenges.

The study is available here (in Latvian):

Latvijas attīstības scenāriji un enerģētikas sektora klimata neitralitātes mērķa scenārijs (aprakstošs) 2050. gadam (PDF)

On March 18 Productivity Research Institute of the University of Latvia “UL Think tank LV PEAK” carried out the session “TOWARDS CLIMATE NEUTRALITY: ECONOMIC IMPACTS, OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS” at the 80th International Scientific Conference of the University of Latvia. The session was organised within the framework of the project “Modelling and Analysis of the Economic Impact of Climate Goals”.

The conference session provided a platform/opportunity for scholars, researchers and professionals from different disciplinary backgrounds to meet, exchange ideas, findings, research results and discuss the topical issues related to climate neutrality.

Agenda of the Session

Report presentations:

1. Life cycle assessment of renewable energy sources towards climate neutrality

Authors: Mrs SOUSA, Ana; Mr HENRIQUE, SANTOS, Bruno; Mr CARLOS, Francisco; Dr POMBEIRO, Henrique; Mr GRAÇA GOMES, João; Ms GONÇALVES, Margarida; Mrs ITEN, Muriel; Mr CARVALHO, Nuno; Mr FRADE, Pedro; Mr FERREIRA, Pedro

2. Distributional Implications of GHG mitigation policies: Methods and Insights

Authors: Mr PAROUSSOS, Leonidas; Mr CHARALAMPIDIS, Ioannis; Mr FRAGKIADAKIS, Kostas; Mrs VRONTISI, Zoi

3. Computable General Equilibrium Model as a Tool to Assess the Impact of Climate Policy in Latvia

Authors: Dr KRASNOPJOROVS, Olegs; Mr JUKNA, Daniels; Mr KOVALOVS, Konstantins; Ms FREIMANE, Rita

4. Structural limits of Czech energy policy

Author: Dr VLCEK, Tomas

5. The Energy Trilemma Index as a tool to support national security of energy system towards climate neutrality

Authors: Mr GICEVSKIS, Karlis; Mr GROZA, Edgars; Ms KARPOVICA, Inese; Mr SMILTANS, Edgars

6. Latvia’s green energy development - at what expense?

Authors: Mr TUKULIS, Anrijs; Mr MILLERS, Haralds; Ms VISKUBA, Karīna; Mr LIEPNIEKS, Tomass

7. Energy Equity and its Evaluation Methodologies

Authors: Dr OLEKSIJS, Romans; Dr GREBESA, Polina; Mr ZAJECS, Felikss; Mr ROZENFELDS, Egons